This is the fourth edition of the Outlier Report — a monthly series where I identify a handful of hitters I believe are due for a meaningful shift in performance, whether that’s a breakout coming or a slump on the way.
By leaning on expected statistics — xBA, xSLG, xwOBA — alongside various Statcast metrics, we can see where reality and results have drifted apart. That gap is what this report exposes. This season, the Outlier Report has predicted breakouts / regressions at a 87% success rate.
If you are unfamiliar with expected stats, here is a quick breakdown: instead of a results driven outcome, expected stats put a number on each ball a player hits. For example, a ball hit 110 mph in the gap that an outfielder makes a diving catch on is a batting average of .000, but that is an expected batting average of .650 — as we could expect that ball to result in a hit 65% of the time. As time goes on, with more and more at-bats, players get closer to their expected numbers.
Last month we called out Phillies’ Brandon Marsh to underperform. Well, in July he slashed .140/.213/.209. In previous editions we called out Dillon Dinglers’ breakout, Bo Bichette’s impressive June (.321 BA, 5 HR), Jesus Luzardo lowering his ERA by 2.50, and many more. This month is jam packed with five more players I’ve analyzed.
Quick preview on this month’s report: A repeat player, one Yankee, a trade deadline rumored player that could have teams overselling big time, and a very under-the-radar star to buy stock in now. Read about them after the report on July’s predictions.
You can find the previous editions here:
First, a look at last month’s players and how they played:
Brandon Nimmo — predicted to progress
In the month of July, he slashed .272/.322/.444 — up from his season lines but not significant. He’s maintaining impressive underlying metrics, and I’d expect to see another uptick in August.
Bobby Witt Jr. — predicted to progress
Witt played in just 14 games in July, and is currently on the IL for the first time in his career. In those 14 games, he hit under .200. This was a miss, but clearly he had something bothering him.
Mookie Betts — predicted to progress
Mookie had a very disappointing July with a slash line of .205/.267/.313. This has been the worst season at the plate in his career. Another miss here.
Zack Gelof — predicted to regress
Gelof played in just five games in July, after an injury took him off the field early on. Although, he recorded just one hit in 19 PA.
Brandon Marsh — predicted to regress
Marsh had an abysmal month of July, as predicted. He recorded a shocking slash line of just .140/.213/.209. This month lowered his batting average from .317 to .277.
Eduardo Rodriguez — predicted to regress
Rodriguez had a 3.57 ERA in four starts since the July edition was published — bringing his ERA up a tick. He struck out 17 and walked seven. His FIP also jumped up from 3.98 to 4.46.
This month was a little rough compared to May and June. Of course, we nailed the Brandon Marsh regression call, but we missed on Mookie Betts and Bobby Witt. We did still hit on Nimmo and Rodriguez, albeit small movements.
